The Electoral Commission, charged by parliament with ensuring the 2016 EU referendum was fair, unlawfully tilted the playing field in favour of leave. That’s the striking consequence of a high court decision from this morning.
Erm... The High Court found the Electoral Commission gave the wrong advice to Vote Leave, saying they were allowed to give surplus money to Grimes.
Quote:
What does all this mean?
First, the commission – charged by statute with ensuring campaigners complied with the law – instead allowed Vote Leave to break it. The high court decision is absolutely excoriating: the commission was “unconstructive”, its actions lacked “any rational basis” and were “arbitrary”, and its approach to the law was a “recipe for abuse of the spending restrictions”. Heads must roll, beginning with that of Bob Posner, the commission’s legal counsel.
Second, the inevitable consequence of the high court decision is that Vote Leave has broken the law in two different ways: once with “common plan spending” with Grimes – the matter already referred to the police, and where Vote Leave acted without commission sign-off – and once by following the commission’s unlawful and “extremely surprising” advice.
...
These are not the findings of a government agency. These are the conclusions of the high court – and an immensely powerful court at that. One of the judges was a court of appeal judge at the time of the hearing, and the other is a court of appeal judge now. They have concluded that the regulator mismanaged the referendum. And the consequence is that Vote Leave has broken the law.
The government regulator in charge of ensuring the referendum was fair itself acted unlawfully and tilted the playing field in favour of leave. This isn’t democracy: it’s an embarrassment.
My guess is Vote Leave will use this to appeal the fines and win. Whilst they broke the law, they did so with the guidance and blessing of the Electoral Commission.
In any event, Leave spent £11m and Remain spent £16m, 45% MORE. And that £16m doesn't include the £9m Cameron spent on his Remain booklet delivered to every household which takes Remain up to £25m, almost 2 1/2 times Leave. Plus of course, Remain had the full force of the establishment behind them - remember Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and his dire predictions before the vote? Most of those didn't come true, he was way out in some cases and I believe his reckless statements actually caused damage to the UK, for example he caused the pound to fall in August this year and just delivered another head shot to the economy last week.
Registered: Aug 2002 Posts: 40942 - Threads: 1198 Location: London
Quote:
Matt wrote on 15-09-2018 03:58 PM
Erm... The High Court found the Electoral Commission gave the wrong advice to Vote Leave, saying they were allowed to give surplus money to Grimes.
My guess is Vote Leave will use this to appeal the fines and win. Whilst they broke the law, they did so with the guidance and blessing of the Electoral Commission.
In any event, Leave spent £11m and Remain spent £16m, 45% MORE. And that £16m doesn't include the £9m Cameron spent on his Remain booklet delivered to every household which takes Remain up to £25m, almost 2 1/2 times Leave. Plus of course, Remain had the full force of the establishment behind them - remember Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and his dire predictions before the vote? Most of those didn't come true, he was way out in some cases and I believe his reckless statements actually caused damage to the UK, for example he caused the pound to fall in August this year and just delivered another head shot to the economy last week.
I wasn't aware \ don't recall what Carney said, so did a search.
From what I saw, his main predictions were a sharp drop in sterling and a UK recession.
Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England The Bank warned a vote to leave the EU could:
Push the pound lower, “perhaps sharply”.
Prompt households and businesses to delay spending.
Increase unemployment.
Hit economic growth.
Stoke inflation.
I wasn't aware \ don't recall what Carney said, so did a search.
From what I saw, his main predictions were a sharp drop in sterling and a UK recession.
Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England The Bank warned a vote to leave the EU could:
Push the pound lower, “perhaps sharply”.
Prompt households and businesses to delay spending.
Increase unemployment.
Hit economic growth.
Stoke inflation.
Points raised in the clip, x denotes he was wrong, just look at how badly wrong he was:
x Technical recession
Pound lower, perhaps sharply
Lower pound stokes inflation
x GDP growth in 2017 of 0.8%, in fact it was 1.8%
x Unemployment rise to 5.5%, in fact it has fallen steadily to 4%
x Household consumption rise of 1%, in fact it has risen by 4%
x Business investment down 2%, in fact it went up 2.6%
x Housing investment down 4.75%, in fact it has gone up 5%
x Exports down 0.5%, in fact they've gone up 12.1%
x Imports down 2.5%, in fact they've gone up 9.3%
Some of the predictions were obvious. A GSCE economics student could have predicted that the pound would fall in the event of a vote for Brexit but what is often overlooked is the pound had been falling for the previous 2 years and economists reckoned it needed to fall further before finding the right level. That clear fact makes the prediction even easier.
Below is the chart showing monthly GBPUSD rates.
The red box highlights 2014-2016 with an obvious downward trend, falling from $1.70 to under $1.40 at the start of 2016, before rising on the expectation of a No result. That's a fall of more than 30 cents over 18 months...
The red drop bottom right is June 2016 and the Brexit vote, as Carney predicted.
But if you follow the horizontal line, you'll notice that earlier this year the pound was back at 2016 pre-vote levels...
Carney's speech in early August 2018 knocked 5c off the rate, arrowed, and IIRC falls earlier this year correlate with EU pronunciations and political infighting in the UK.
Registered: Apr 2004 Posts: 176 - Threads: 83 Location: London
The pound is stronger than the chart shows as the US has increased interest rates faster than the UK,which normally strengthens a currency.If our interest rates were level it would be more likley nearer 1.5 US$ to £1.
One beneficial consequence of Brexit is that it has put on hold the rapid closure of London's clubs which was going on before the vote due to property development.We have gained a club in Printworks,which was ear marked or high end flats.Every time I have been there it has been packing them in,it has revolutionised London clubland.Brexit may also lead to a reduction in the high accomodation costs in London.
Registered: Feb 2010 Posts: 39935 - Threads: 1064 Location: In a wide open space
2016
Winner Thread Honourable Mention Member
Oh goodie, we're getting a commemorative coin to "celebrate" brexit. Fuck off.
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Registered: Nov 2005 Posts: 3571 - Threads: 61 Location: On It Innit
I have not read this thread, all I know is politics is a load of bollotix! As you were peoples/….. btw government comes from the Latin … control of the mind!
How delightful!
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15-09-2018 15:58 PM
